How the Institute works

Four bodies of work, one standard of care.

Research, data, people and standing — each with its own method, and its own honesty rules about what has and has not happened yet. Scroll to move through them, or jump with the tabs.

DRAFTREVIEWED

Research

Publications written to be argued with, not admired.

Working papers and method notes on contract design, settlement governance, funding mechanics and market integrity. Six standing tracks are open, from what makes a question resolvable to what competent professional conduct looks like.

Nothing carries the Institute name until it survives review — fellows and outside readers take a draft apart before it publishes, and a paper that does not survive that does not go out under our name.

Methods and data sources are stated before conclusions.
Every claim is attributable to a named author and a version.
Reviewers may dissent in print; dissents publish with the paper.

Research agenda Try the Wording Clinic

Built for researchers and policymakers

PREDICTED %OBSERVED %

Data

Methods stated before a single result is.

Open, documented methods for scoring forecasts, measuring calibration and comparing venues — so a claim about accuracy can be checked, not just asserted.

No dataset or accuracy figure has been published yet. The commitments below are fixed in advance, on purpose: a flattering early sample cannot become a headline if the threshold for publishing it was set before the sample existed.

Definitions — resolved, stale, comparable — are written down first.
Scoring rules run on published code paths and stated bucketing.
Minimum sample sizes are fixed before any result is seen.

Data programme

Built for venues, operators and researchers

SUBMITPUBLISH

People

A working network, not a masthead.

Practitioners, academics and supervisors who carry the research programme and review what the Institute puts its name on. Appointments are made against the standing agenda, not against a CV.

Four kinds of fellow: research fellows who lead a track, practice fellows who keep it honest about how venues behave under stress, policy fellows who translate mechanics into regulation, and reviewers who may publish a dissent.

A submission names a question and a falsifier before it is read.
Fellows publish under their own name, not an Institute position.
Employment, holdings and funding are disclosed at application.

Fellows programme

Built for practitioners, academics and supervisors

MEMBERCREDENTIALED

Standing

A professional home, and a credential on the record.

A home for people who advise, design, operate and govern these markets — member, credentialed member, and institutional member — plus PMA-CICP, an assessed credential in development for those who want their judgment on the record.

The assessment is aimed at the CTAs and RIAs already being asked about these contracts by clients. It is a competence standard only: not a licence, a registration, or approval by any regulator.

Apply, review, admission, renewal — four steps, no hidden stage.
Waivers exempt only after a reviewer verifies the claim.
The founding cohort is open; no fee has been set or published.

Membership

Built for professionals and firms

FOUNDING PHASE

Pick the body of work you'd add to, and start there.

Join the founding cohort