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Changelog

What actually shipped, dated.

Built in public means this list is checkable, not a claim. Every entry below is a real change to this site — nothing backdated, nothing padded to look older or busier than it is.

  1. 2026-08-17

    Type-checked the whole codebase against the real database

    Wired real, generated Supabase types into both database clients instead of leaving them untyped, and fixed everything that surfaced — including a query bug in the War Room and an unsound cast in the auth composable.

  2. 2026-08-17

    Fixed a credential-verification bug

    /verify could fabricate an "Active" credential status under a specific misconfiguration. Removed the fallback; the endpoint now fails honestly instead of inventing a result.

  3. 2026-08-17

    Condensed the homepage to two sections

    A short hero and one scroll-synced showcase, replacing five stacked sections.

  4. 2026-08-17

    Added the War Room, the Wording Clinic, and adversarial review memos

    Real-time member collaboration on advocacy; a free, rule-based wording checker; and Institute-drafted analysis argued from multiple perspectives, published as draft pending review.

Prediction Markets Institute

What if tomorrow was predictable?

An independent research institute for prediction markets. We publish research and methods, set out design standards, and convene the people who build, supervise and study these markets.

Prediction Markets Institute (PMI) is the organisation. PMA-CICP is the credential it is establishing. This site is named after the credential, not after a second body.

© 2026 Prediction Markets Institute

Prediction Markets Institute is an independent research and standards body. It does not claim tax-exempt status.

The Institute is a research and professional body. It is not a regulator, an exchange, a designated contract market, a broker-dealer, or a registered investment adviser, and it is not authorised, endorsed or approved by any such body. Membership and any credential the Institute confers attest to professional competence only; they confer no licence, registration or permission to advise, solicit, trade, or handle client assets, and are neither approved nor required by the CFTC, the NFA, or any other regulator. The PMA-CICP credential is in development and has not been issued.

Nothing on this site is investment, legal or tax advice, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any contract, or a prediction of any outcome. Prediction market and derivative contracts carry risk, including total loss.