Public record
What exists, and what doesn't.
Founding institutions usually describe the finished version. This is the actual state. If a row moves you will be able to see when — and if it doesn't move, you can hold us to that too.
2 live · 7 in progress · 3 not started — 12 of 12 rows computed from the site's own data, 1 resting on an attestation
| Commitment | Status | Last changed |
|---|---|---|
| The Wording Clinic autoFree, rule-based and client-side. Seven published patterns, fixed in advance and citable by identifier, each tied to a standing research track. Embeddable on other sites. | Live | Recorded 17 August 2026, from CLINIC_PATTERNS. |
| Standing research agenda autoSix open tracks, published with the question each one is trying to answer. | Live | Recorded 16 July 2026, from RESEARCH_AGENDA. |
| Adversarial review memos auto1 memo drafted, 0 published. Current questions argued from named opposing positions. Shown while still draft — pending review, not yet an Institute position. | In review | Recorded 17 August 2026, from pmi_adversarial_memos. |
| Published working papers autoNone yet. A research index padded with work that does not exist is worse than an empty one. | None | — |
| Flagship report auto“The resolvability of event contracts” — a working title. Clears internal review by fellows and outside readers, with any dissent published alongside it. | In preparation | — |
| Calibration dataset and accuracy figures autoMethods, definitions and a minimum sample of 500 resolved observations are fixed. No result has been published, and none will be before that floor is met. | Methods set | Recorded 16 July 2026, from publishableResults(). |
| Founding fellows cohort autoForming. No names are listed because no appointment has been accepted, and placeholder names would defeat the point. | Forming | Recorded 16 July 2026, from FELLOWS_ROSTER. |
| Published competency blueprint autoSix weighted domains for the core assessment, each mapped to a standing research track, with the level of judgement expected at each. A draft: published so it can be argued with, not a specification anyone has been assessed against. | Draft v0.1.0 | Recorded 19 August 2026, from blueprintDomains(). |
| Credential assessment sittings autoExam sittings are not yet scheduled. The PMA-CICP assessment is in development and has not been administered. Applicants on the credential track are recorded and will be contacted when the first sitting is set. No date is published here until one exists. | Not scheduled | — |
| The PMA-CICP credential autoIn development. Not issued, not accredited, not recognised — and not a licence, a registration, or a regulatory approval of any kind. | In development | Recorded 16 July 2026, from examScheduling() + pmi_credentials. |
| Independent standards council autoattestedBeing recruited and not yet seated. Until it is, no claim of independent review of a certification decision should be read into anything on this site. | Not seated | Attested 19 August 2026. Nothing in this repository or its database can verify it; it is re-confirmed or marked unverified after 90 days. |
| Tax-exempt recognition autoPrediction Markets Institute is an independent research and standards body. It does not claim tax-exempt status. | Not claimed | — |
Rows marked auto are computed from the data that already governs this site — the pattern registry, the research agenda, the publications list, the fellows and council rosters, exam scheduling, the entity note, and the memo and credential tables — so they change on the day the fact does, not on the day someone remembers to edit this page. A row marked attested rests on a person's claim about the present that nothing here can check; after 90 days without re-confirmation its date is replaced by unverified since, rather than going on looking like a date we could prove.
Why publish this
An empty row is information.
The Institute is being built in public. That means the honest answer to a lot of reasonable questions is currently “not yet” — no papers published, no fellows announced, no credential issued, no accuracy figures. Those answers are already on the pages they belong to. Collecting them here is not an admission; it is the same discipline applied to the organisation that the research programme applies to its own claims.
All 12 rows above are computed rather than written — from the wording clinic's pattern registry, the research agenda, the publications guard, the fellows and council rosters, the exam scheduling state, the entity note, and the memo and credential tables. They cannot drift from what the rest of the site says, because they read the same values the rest of the site reads. Appointing a fellow or publishing a paper moves the row here with no edit to this page at all.
One row still rests on a date a person asserts and nothing here can verify — whether anyone has actually been approached about the standards council is not a fact any file or table records. That row is marked attested, and if it goes ninety days without being re-confirmed the date is replaced by unverified since rather than continuing to look like something we could prove. When one of them is wrong, that is a failure worth hearing about.
For what has shipped, in order and dated, see the changelog — this page is where things stand; that one is how they got here.