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Registry changelog

What changed, and when.

A version number is only worth citing if the history behind it is published. Every release of the failure-pattern registry is listed here. Entries are appended; none is ever edited.

Current version 1.0.0 · the registry

  1. 1.0.0

    First published registry: seven patterns, drawn from the standing research agenda.

    • · PMI-WP-001 through PMI-WP-007 published.
    • · Identifiers fixed. From this version on they are stable and are never reused.

Rules for this registry, stated once so they can be relied on: an identifier is never reused and never renumbered. A withdrawn pattern keeps its number, stops matching, and its page says so. A change to any definition, severity or detection produces a new version and an entry above.

Prediction Markets Institute

What if tomorrow was predictable?

An independent research institute for prediction markets. We publish research and methods, set out design standards, and convene the people who build, supervise and study these markets.

Prediction Markets Institute (PMI) is the organisation. PMA-CICP is the credential it is establishing. This site is named after the credential, not after a second body.

© 2026 Prediction Markets Institute

Prediction Markets Institute is an independent research and standards body. It does not claim tax-exempt status.

The Institute is a research and professional body. It is not a regulator, an exchange, a designated contract market, a broker-dealer, or a registered investment adviser, and it is not authorised, endorsed or approved by any such body. Membership and any credential the Institute confers attest to professional competence only; they confer no licence, registration or permission to advise, solicit, trade, or handle client assets, and are neither approved nor required by the CFTC, the NFA, or any other regulator. The PMA-CICP credential is in development and has not been issued.

Nothing on this site is investment, legal or tax advice, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any contract, or a prediction of any outcome. Prediction market and derivative contracts carry risk, including total loss.