Event Contract Specification

One definition of an OTC event contract.

The ECS gives every term a bilateral event contract needs to resolve — the source, the deadline, the fallbacks, the dispute route, the documentation — a named, typed field, however the trade is formed and whoever intermediates it. A missing term stops being a risk someone has to spot and becomes a field that is visibly empty.

Validate a contract Specification (JSON)JSON Schema

API: POST /api/ecs/validate

Status: version 0.1.0, draft, published 28 Sep 2026. It is the Institute's working proposal, owned by the standards council once seated, and open to argument until then. No dealer, counterparty or regulator has adopted it, and the Determinations Committee it describes does not yet exist. It is free to implement under an open licence, and its governance moves to a neutral industry body once 3 firms unaffiliated with the Institute's sponsor, Tomorrow, use it — see the charter.

Part E — Conformance

Three levels, each containing the one below.

ECS-1

Well-formed

Every required term is present and typed correctly. A machine can read it; nobody has yet asked whether it resolves.

ECS-2

Resolvable

A named publication, a determination deadline, a complete fallback waterfall and a dispute route — and no structural failure pattern left in the Question.

ECS-3

Governed

Disputes can reach independent review and are published with reasons; the confirmation incorporates the ECS Definitions; restricted persons, a manipulation assessment and reporting are stated; no wording-level failure pattern remains.

A level is a property of a contract document, computed by the published validator. A claim that a firm conforms — Tomorrow included — is different: it needs assessment by assessors independent of Tomorrow under the sponsorship and conflicts policy, and none has been made.

Validator

Validate a contract

Runs in your browser against the published engine. Nothing you paste leaves this page.

{
  "ecs": "0.1",
  "contract": {
    "id": "EXAMPLE-OTC-0001",
    "category": "economics",
    "question": "Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the target range for the federal funds rate at its meeting ending 9 December 2026?"
  },
  "outcomes": {
    "type": "binary",
    "values": [
      "Yes",
      "No"
    ]
  },
  "observation": {
    "event": "The upper bound of the federal funds target range announced at the conclusion of the meeting is lower than the upper bound in effect immediately before it.",
    "closeTime": "2026-12-09T19:00:00Z"
  },
  "resolution": {
    "method": "single-source",
    "source": {
      "name": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System",
      "publication": "FOMC statement released at the conclusion of the meeting",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"
    },
    "determinationDeadline": "PT24H",
    "fallbacks": [
      "postpone",
      "determinations-committee"
    ],
    "maxPostponement": "P7D"
  },
  "disputes": {
    "window": "P5D",
    "decisionMaker": "determinations-committee",
    "independentReview": true,
    "publishedReasons": true
  },
  "settlement": {
    "currency": "USD",
    "payoutPerContract": 1,
    "period": "P2D"
  },
  "integrity": {
    "restrictedPersons": "Each party represents that it is not a Restricted Person: Federal Reserve staff and officials, and anyone with access to the statement before release.",
    "manipulationSensitivity": "low"
  },
  "execution": {
    "eligibility": "eligible-contract-participant",
    "formation": "request-for-quote",
    "intermediaryRole": "agent",
    "calculationAgent": "The dealer, subject to the dispute route",
    "documentation": {
      "master": "Parties’ master agreement",
      "confirmation": "ECS confirmation v0.1",
      "incorporatesDefinitions": true
    },
    "clearing": "uncleared",
    "collateral": "Full prepayment of maximum loss by each party",
    "reporting": "Reporting counterparty to a swap data repository"
  }
}

Load an example or paste a contract, then validate.

Part F — The Event Contract Identifier

The same contract has the same name in every trade.

The ECI is a fingerprint of a contract's economic terms — the question, outcomes, observation, resolution and payoff — and nothing about how it trades. The OTC market has no central book, so the same event written by different dealers, under different documentation and collateral, has until now been impossible to add up. With one identifier per contract, exposure can be aggregated across dealers and counterparties. The two worked examples above — one through a dealer, one negotiated directly — carry the same ECI:

Dealer trade (request for quote): ECI1-RDSY-QT13-QE9R-MR6D
Direct trade (negotiated): ECI1-RDSY-QT13-QE9R-MR6D

Part A

Data model

“Level” is the conformance level at which a field becomes required. “In ECI” marks the economic terms the identifier is computed from.

ecs

Field	Level	Applies to	In ECI	Meaning
ecs	ECS-1	All	—	The ECS version this document conforms to.

contract

Field	Level	Applies to	In ECI	Meaning
contract.id	ECS-1	All	—	The issuer’s own reference for the contract.
contract.question	ECS-1	All	Yes	The question, as displayed to a participant. Checked against the failure-pattern registry.
contract.category	ECS-1	All	—	Classification, for aggregation across venues. Not part of the identifier.economics · elections · policy-regulation · sports · weather-climate · science-technology · corporate · digital-assets · culture · other

outcomes

Field	Level	Applies to	In ECI	Meaning
outcomes.type	ECS-1	All	Yes	Binary (two outcomes), categorical (one of a stated set) or scalar (a measured value).binary · categorical · scalar
outcomes.values	ECS-1	Binary, categorical	Yes	The exhaustive, mutually exclusive set of outcomes. Binary contracts list exactly two.
outcomes.partialTruthRule	Optional	All	Yes	How the contract resolves when a compound condition is only partly met. Required in effect wherever the question joins two facts.

observation

Field	Level	Applies to	In ECI	Meaning
observation.event	ECS-1	All	Yes	The precise event or measurement observed, stated without evaluative terms.
observation.closeTime	ECS-1	All	Yes	The instant after which the event can no longer occur for this contract. ISO 8601 with an explicit offset.
observation.measurement.precision	ECS-2	Scalar	Yes	The precision at which the measured value is read (e.g. “one decimal place, in percent”).
observation.measurement.rounding	ECS-2	Scalar	Yes	The rounding rule applied at that precision.half-up · half-even · truncate · none

resolution

Field	Level	Applies to	In ECI	Meaning
resolution.source.name	ECS-1	All	Yes	Whose account of the world settles the contract.
resolution.method	ECS-2	All	Yes	Whether one source determines the outcome, or several read together under a stated aggregation rule.single-source · multi-source
resolution.additionalSources	ECS-2	Conditional	Yes	The other sources read alongside the primary one.
resolution.aggregation	ECS-2	Conditional	Yes	How the sources are combined — e.g. median, unanimity, two of three — and what happens when they diverge.
resolution.source.publication	ECS-2	All	Yes	The specific publication, release or dataset — not the organisation in general.
resolution.source.url	ECS-2	All	Yes	Where that publication is found.
resolution.determinationDeadline	ECS-2	All	Yes	Latest time after the close time by which the outcome is determined, as an ISO 8601 duration.
resolution.fallbacks	ECS-2	All	Yes	The ordered fallback waterfall (Part C), ending in a terminal step.
resolution.alternateSource.name	ECS-2	Conditional	Yes	The named alternate source, if the waterfall uses one.
resolution.maxPostponement	ECS-2	Conditional	Yes	The longest the determination may be postponed before the next step applies.
resolution.voidSettlement	ECS-2	Conditional	Yes	How a voided contract settles. Never at a last traded price, which the parties can move.return-of-premium · fixed-payout

disputes

Field	Level	Applies to	In ECI	Meaning
disputes.window	ECS-2	All	—	How long after determination a dispute may be raised.
disputes.decisionMaker	ECS-2	All	—	Who decides a dispute.calculation-agent · determinations-committee · arbitration · counterparty-agreement
disputes.independentReview	ECS-3	All	—	A decision can be reviewed by someone with no interest in the outcome and no position in the contract.
disputes.publishedReasons	ECS-3	All	—	Determinations and dispute outcomes are published with reasons.

settlement

Field	Level	Applies to	In ECI	Meaning
settlement.currency	ECS-1	All	Yes	ISO 4217 code, or the identifier of the settlement asset.
settlement.payoutPerContract	ECS-1	Binary, categorical	Yes	Amount paid per contract on the winning outcome.
settlement.payoutFormula	ECS-1	Scalar	Yes	For scalar contracts, the payout as a function of the observed value, with any floor and cap.
settlement.period	ECS-2	All	—	Time from determination to settlement.

integrity

Field	Level	Applies to	In ECI	Meaning
integrity.restrictedPersons	ECS-3	All	—	Who may not trade: at minimum anyone able to influence the outcome or holding material non-public information about it.
integrity.manipulationSensitivity	ECS-3	All	—	The issuer’s own assessment of how easily the outcome could be influenced by a participant.low · elevated · high

execution

Field	Level	Applies to	In ECI	Meaning
execution.eligibility	ECS-1	All	—	Who may be a counterparty.eligible-contract-participant · other
execution.formation	ECS-2	All	—	How the trade is formed.request-for-quote · bilateral-negotiation · other
execution.intermediaryRole	ECS-2	All	—	The role of any platform or dealer between the counterparties. Disclosed because it changes who bears what risk.none · principal · agent · introducing-only
execution.calculationAgent	ECS-2	All	—	Who makes the Determination in the first instance.
execution.documentation.master	ECS-2	All	—	The master agreement the confirmation sits under.
execution.documentation.confirmation	ECS-2	All	—	The confirmation form that carries these terms.
execution.documentation.incorporatesDefinitions	ECS-3	All	—	The confirmation incorporates the ECS Definitions by reference, so every term above carries its published meaning.
execution.clearing	ECS-2	All	—	Whether the trade is cleared.cleared · uncleared
execution.collateral	ECS-2	All	—	The collateral or margin terms that apply.
execution.reporting	ECS-3	All	—	Who reports the trade, and to whom.

Part B

Definitions

Incorporated by reference: a contract or confirmation that states “incorporates the PMI ECS Definitions v0.1” takes these meanings.

Event Contract: An agreement whose payoff depends on whether, or the extent to which, a stated event occurs, as observed by a stated source.
Question: The plain-language statement of the Event Contract, as displayed to participants. Where the Question and the structured terms conflict, the structured terms govern.
Outcome Set: The exhaustive and mutually exclusive outcomes of the contract. Exactly one Outcome is determined.
Close Time: The instant after which the observed event can no longer occur for purposes of the contract.
Resolution Source: The named publisher and specific publication whose account determines the Outcome. The Resolution Source is not a party to the contract and assumes no obligation by being named.
Determination: The act of fixing the Outcome from the Resolution Source, made no later than the Determination Deadline.
Disruption Event: Any of: the Resolution Source does not publish by the Determination Deadline; it publishes a statement that does not answer the Question; it withdraws or materially revises a publication after Determination; or the event becomes impossible to observe.
Fallback Waterfall: The ordered steps applied on a Disruption Event, each tried only if the one before it fails, ending in a Terminal Step.
Terminal Step: A fallback step that always produces a result: a Determinations Committee decision, or Void.
Void: The contract is settled without any Outcome being treated as having occurred, on the basis stated in its void settlement term. Never at a traded price.
Calculation Agent: The party named in the confirmation to make the Determination in the first instance. Its Determination is subject to the contract’s dispute route.
Determinations Committee: A standing panel, independent of every party to the contract and of any intermediary in it, that decides Outcomes on referral and publishes each decision with reasons.
Partial Truth: The state in which a Question joining two or more conditions has some but not all conditions met. A contract whose Question can reach Partial Truth must state how it resolves.
Restricted Person: Anyone able to influence the Outcome, or holding material non-public information about it, and anyone trading on their behalf.
Event Contract Identifier (ECI): A fingerprint of a contract’s economic terms, derived by the method in Part F. Two contracts with the same ECI define the same event and the same payoff, whoever the counterparties are and however the trade was formed.

Part C

Fallback waterfall

Applied on a Disruption Event, in the order the contract states, ending in a terminal step. Recommended order:

01Alternate sourceDetermine from a named alternate source, stated in the contract before trading opens.
02PostponeWait for the Resolution Source up to a stated maximum postponement, then move to the next step.
03Determinations CommitteeRefer to an independent committee, which decides and publishes reasons. Terminal.
04VoidSettle on the stated void basis — return of premium or a fixed payout — never at a traded price. Terminal.

Part D

Determinations Committee

Designed, not yet operating. A standing panel, appointed by the standards council, that decides outcomes referred to it by any pair of counterparties whose contracts elect it — so one contract resolves one way in every trade that references it, rather than once per calculation agent. Panellists are independent of every party and intermediary, may not hold positions in anything referred to them, and publish each determination with reasons and a permanent identifier.

How the wording clinic maps

PMI-WP-002 is answered by outcomes.partialTruthRule
PMI-WP-003 is answered by resolution.source.publication
PMI-WP-004 is answered by observation.closeTime
PMI-WP-005 is answered by disputes.decisionMaker
PMI-WP-006 is answered by resolution.fallbacks
PMI-WP-007 is answered by observation.measurement.rounding

History

v0.1.028 Sep 2026First public draft for OTC event contracts: data model, definitions, fallback waterfall, conformance levels and the Event Contract Identifier. Exchange-listed contracts and perpetual (non-expiring) event contracts are out of scope for this version.

The ECS borrows its structure from ISDA's Definitions, Common Domain Model, fallback protocols and Determinations Committees. None of those bodies has reviewed or endorsed it. Nothing here is legal advice; whether a given contract is a swap, and who may trade it, are questions for counsel.