{"blueprint":"Prediction Markets Institute — PMA-CICP competency blueprint","version":"0.1.0","status":"draft","publishedOn":"2026-08-19","gate":"Review by the independent standards council, which owns the blueprint and has not been seated. Until then the weightings and levels below are the Institute’s working position, published so they can be argued with — not a specification any candidate has been assessed against.","url":"https://www.predictionmarketadvisors.com/blueprint","licence":"Free to cite, quote and build against, with attribution to the Prediction Markets Institute.","core":{"totalWeighting":100,"publishable":true,"domains":[{"n":"01","track":"Contract design & wording","weighting":22,"level":"judgement","tests":"Reading a contract as the person who will have to resolve it. Identifying the wording that will be disputed, stating why, and rewriting it so that two resolvers acting in good faith reach the same answer. The published failure-pattern registry is the floor here, not the ceiling: a candidate is expected to find defects it does not catalogue.","levelDescription":"Judgement — the candidate can decide under conflict, and defend the decision"},{"n":"02","track":"Settlement & resolution governance","weighting":20,"level":"judgement","tests":"Deciding who resolves, on what evidence, within what window, and what happens when the named source goes silent or is contradicted. Includes the case the candidate would rather not have: resolving against their own client, on the record, with reasons.","levelDescription":"Judgement — the candidate can decide under conflict, and defend the decision"},{"n":"03","track":"Market integrity","weighting":16,"level":"analysis","tests":"Separating manipulation that surveillance can catch from manipulation only design can prevent. Reading order and resolution-source patterns for the signature of each, and knowing which of the two the venue in front of you is exposed to.","levelDescription":"Analysis — the candidate can take a real artefact apart and find the defect"},{"n":"04","track":"Funding, margin & collateral","weighting":14,"level":"analysis","tests":"Funding-rate behaviour, index construction, collateral haircuts and liquidation cascades in venues that never close — and how each interacts with an event that resolves discontinuously.","levelDescription":"Analysis — the candidate can take a real artefact apart and find the defect"},{"n":"05","track":"Measurement & calibration","weighting":14,"level":"analysis","tests":"What would have to be true for a forecast-quality claim to be checkable. Scoring rules, bucketing, sample floors, and recognising the comparison that flatters the person making it.","levelDescription":"Analysis — the candidate can take a real artefact apart and find the defect"},{"n":"06","track":"Supervision & professional conduct","weighting":14,"level":"judgement","tests":"Client communication, conflicts, record-keeping, escalation, and the governance of AI use in the candidate’s own work — including declining to act, and saying so in writing.","levelDescription":"Judgement — the candidate can decide under conflict, and defend the decision"}]},"specializations":[{"id":"event","title":"Event markets","detail":"Contract wording, probability, settlement governance and market integrity."},{"id":"perps","title":"Perpetuals & crypto derivatives","detail":"Funding, index design, collateral, liquidation and 24/7 market risk."},{"id":"design","title":"Novel contract design","detail":"Payoff architecture, manipulation resistance, margin logic and scenario analysis."},{"id":"supervision","title":"Supervision & integrity","detail":"Client communications, conflicts, records, AI governance, surveillance and escalation."}],"history":[{"version":"0.1.0","publishedOn":"2026-08-19","summary":"First draft. Six core domains, weighted, each mapped to a standing research track.","changes":["Core assessment domains published with weightings and judgement levels.","Specialization assessments listed against the credential architecture already published on /credential.","Status is draft: nothing here has been reviewed by the standards council, which is not yet seated."]}]}